Law enforcement warns: Tinubu's actions are putting Nigeria on a collision course with catastrophe, says Olu Fasan

President Bola Tinubu recently made the shocking decision to sack Kayode Egbetokun as Nigeria's 22nd Inspector-General of Police, reportedly due to Egbetokun's strong reservations about the creation of state police.

Tinubu swiftly appointed Tunji Disu as the new Inspector-General of Police, who immediately declared that "state police has come to stay" and set up a panel to develop a framework for establishing it.

The contrasting fates of Egbetokun and Disu highlight the risks of opposing or supporting the creation of state police, with one losing his job and the other gaining a prestigious position due to their stance on the issue.

President Tinubu is determined to push through the creation of state police as a "legacy" project, and with his party controlling more than two-thirds of the National Assembly and 32 of Nigeria's 36 state governors, he may succeed in his bid, even before his re-election campaign next year.

However, caution is necessary, as the creation of state police is a serious matter that requires careful consideration, rather than being driven by passion or a desire to leave a legacy.

Unlike other policies that Tinubu has pushed through without proper consideration of the repercussions, such as the withdrawal of the fuel subsidy, the scrapping of the currency peg, and the changing of the national anthem, the creation of state police has far-reaching and potentially adverse consequences that demand a hardnosed analysis.

While there are well-meaning Nigerians who support the creation of state police, a herd mentality where everyone supports the idea without critically evaluating its potential consequences can be disastrous.

Professor Tonnie Iredia, for instance, wrote in his Vanguard column that there is no one directly opposed to the idea of state police, but this assumption ignores the potential risks and unintended consequences of such a policy.

The support for state police in Nigeria reveals a mindset that assumes the benefits outweigh the disadvantages, but this assumption may be misguided, and the creation of state police could lead to monstrous outcomes.

The current centralisation of policing, with a unitary police force controlled from Abuja, is not sustainable, and Section 214(1) of the 1999 Constitution, which states that there shall be a police force for Nigeria and no other police force shall be established, is antithetical to true federalism.

A unitary police force is not the answer, but the creation of state police forces could be counterproductive and produce serious unintended effects, making regional police a more viable alternative.

Olu Fasan prefers regional police, as he wrote in a piece titled "Insecurity: Nigeria needs regional police, not state police" (Vanguard, February 22, 2024), and believes that regional police offers greater advantages and avoids the risks associated with state police.

Two respected lawyers, Dr Chidi Odinkalu and Dr Kayode Ajulo, had contrasting views on the issue, with Odinkalu arguing that state police would be an instrument of oppression and abuse in the hands of state governors, while Ajulo cited the example of Amotekun, the South-West's security outfit, as a model of effective state police.

Ajulo argued that Governor Lucky Ayedatiwa of Ondo State embodies the model of "decentralised accountability" needed for state police to flourish, but this assumption ignores the potential risks of abuse and the lack of strong institutions to ensure accountability.

According to Professors Paul Collier and Tim Besley, serious countries create strong institutions to ensure "routine behaviour, guided by rules", rather than relying on the "good" behaviour of leaders, and Nigeria's experience with state governors hijacking the State Independent Electoral Commission is a case in point.

The draft State Police Bill allows the Federal Government to suspend or take over a state police force in cases of human rights abuse or political interference, but this provision is flawed, as it raises questions about the point of having a state police force if the Federal Government can disband it.

In the US, the Federal Government cannot disband state police forces, and in Nigeria, the risk of politically-motivated suspensions and proscriptions of state police forces is high, especially in a country where a president can capriciously declare a state of emergency and remove an elected state governor from office.

State police would not only spread state terror across Nigeria but also fuel political tension between federal and state governments, especially of different parties, and would be prone to abuse and politicisation.

Beyond the politicisation and abuse of state police, there are questions of funding and operational effectiveness, as establishing a professional and effective police force is expensive and capital-intensive, and few states can fund a proper police force.

An under-resourced, badly trained, and poorly remunerated police force is a danger to society, and state police, as envisioned in the draft bill, would have limited powers, covering mainly community policing, neighbourhood patrols, and rural security operations.

Regional police, on the other hand, offers greater advantages, as it would be less prone to abuse, allow for the creation of a sophisticated and well-resourced police force, and enable states to tackle inter-state and regional insecurity more effectively.

There are three major advantages to regional police: it would be less prone to abuse, allow for the creation of a sophisticated police force, and enable states to tackle inter-state and regional insecurity more effectively.

The UK, for instance, has 43 police forces, but the government proposes to reduce the number significantly by merging existing forces into larger regional police forces, and Nigeria can learn from this example.

Nigeria needs powerful regional police forces, and if the Constitution can be amended to create state police, it can also be amended to create regional police, especially given the de facto recognition of the six geopolitical zones, each with a statutory regional development commission.

However, President Tinubu must not foist state police on Nigeria, as it poses too great a risk, and instead, should consider the alternative of regional police, which offers a more viable and effective solution to the country's security challenges.