Glimmer of Obi/Kwankwaso combo, by Ochereome Nnanna

Ochereome Nnanna

On Monday, March 23, 2026, the presidential candidate of the New Nigerian People’s Party, NNPP, in the 2023 presidential election, Rabiu Kwankwaso, hosted his former Labour Party counterpart, Peter Obi, in Kano. Major Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, stakeholders, such as Senator Seriake Dickson and Oyo State Governor, Seyi Makinde, were also Kwankwaso’s guests. The ensuing rally of the Kwankwasiyya Movement popped a few eyes, as the typical mammoth Kano crowd chanted the names of Obi and Kwankwaso.

For those who still believe that elections can still produce leaders to fix Nigeria’s problems, the rally offered a glimmer of hope. The surge and frenzy could be pointers to possible surprises the people could spring at President Bola Tinubu and the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC. Many commentators have been expressing the fear that Nigeria has already arrived at the threshold of a one-party state. The various parties which won elections in 2023 – PDP, Labour Party, LP, and NNPP, have been haemorrhaging into the APC. The sickening trend is still ongoing.

At this juncture, the APC is the largest ever political party that has ruled Nigeria. It has 31 State Governors (except in Abia, Anambra, Oyo, Bauchi and Osun). At the highest point of its dominance just before the 2011 general elections, the PDP which prided itself as “the largest party in Africa”, had 27 Governors. In the recent election into the Area Councils of the Federal Capital Territory, FCT, the APC swept five of the six seats, for the very first time. It also maintains overwhelming control of the National Assembly. As at February 2026, it commanded 75 out of the 109 seats in the Senate. It also possesses 241 Members of the House of Representatives.

This party, led by President Tinubu, now has the capacity, for the first time in Nigeria’s history, theoretically to pass any bill it wants and amend the Constitution at will without bothering to court the straggling opposition parties. This may sound like heaven to APC members, but it puts Nigeria in a dangerous, untenable position we have always struggled to avoid. Tinubu can now leverage his party’s dominance to sit in office for life while building up his family for continued dominance when he is gone.

Already, the toll of unhealthy one-party dominance is showing on the polity. APC is unarguably the worst performing ruling party in Nigeria’s history. Since they took over in 2015 from the PDP’s President Goodluck Jonathan, Nigeria and Nigerians have been hurtling downhill in all indices of development and living conditions. In spite of the obvious spite that most Nigerians regard the party with, it has however continued to fatten! Politicians now fear that unless they join the APC, they may never win elections or re-elections. This perception took upon a fad after the manner in which victory was swung in the favour of APC candidate in the September 2024 Edo State governorship election. President Tinubu had boasted to APC faithful, in a March 19, 2024 viral video while on a visit to Benin: “You know me very well, I will give Edo State back to you”.

Okpebholo, who had performed very poorly in the campaigns and was far behind his PDP counterpart, Asue Ighodalo, on election day, needed a sudden late election twist to “win”. After that, most governors and federal legislators in opposition parties panicked and started streaming over to the APC. No fewer than nine governors have, in the past 15 months, crossed carpet to Tinubu’s APC from the PDP alone. These are: Peter Mbah (Enugu), Sheriff Oborevwori (Delta), Douye Diri (Bayelsa), Umo Eno (Akwa Ibom), Siminalayi Fubara (Rivers), Caleb Mutfwang (Plateau), Agbu Kefas (Taraba), Dauda Lawal (Zamfara) and Umaru Fintiri (Adamawa). Even Ademola Adeleke of Osun State tried to defect to the APC but was stiff-armed by Tinubu’s political interests who want the state for themselves.

These politicians did not go to the APC because the ruling party is loved by the people or has anything meaningful to offer. They went for political survival and post-tenure safety from being held to account. APC is seen as a “safe haven” for politicians.

President Tinubu, on paper, is all set to take his second term without breaking a sweat. Or so it seems. This steady gale of defections, the residual bitter taste of the 2023 presidential election INEC “glitch” and the retention of manual collation in the 2026 Electoral Amendment Act, have demoralised many voters towards the 2027 general elections. All these add up to great advantages for Tinubu and the APC.

But the Kwankwasiyya Movement’s rally in Kano could wake up a lot of sagging spirits. If the opposition could come together and present a united front, with populist leaders like Obi and Kwankwaso as their presidential ticket, it could galvanise something magical across the nation. Those who decamped to the APC may have left the majority of their people behind. The people may be waiting to punish their defecting erstwhile leaders with a vote for a sweeping change of leadership.

The worst that could have happened was if Tinubu had no credible challenger in 2027. If political parties like PDP, LP, NNPP and the African Democratic Congress, ADC, compete individually against Tinubu/APC, it amounts to no credible opposition. Many analysts talk of what they call the “X-factor”, or the unknown in Nigerian politics. It asserted itself when Gen Sani Abacha suddenly expired after capturing the political landscape in 1998. It also emerged in 2014/2015 when the combined opposition, aided by the Western powers and Boko Haram terrorism, defeated President Jonathan and ended the reign of PDP.

The “X-Factor” only asserts when there is a credible, combined or united opposition on ground. If the Obi and Kwankwaso combo succeeds, things can still happen in 2027!