Cycles of Carnage: Nigeria's Delicate State Leaves it Vulnerable to Violence, by Olu Fasan

President Bola Tinubu's recent statement that he was not elected to create widows and widowers rings hollow, given the thousands of widows, widowers, and orphans created under his administration due to terrorist attacks.

Despite his assurances that such tragedies would not repeat themselves, deadly attacks have continued to occur, including the recent killings in Benue State, which claimed 17 lives, and the massacre in a church in Kaduna State.

Amnesty International has accused President Tinubu of issuing empty condemnations of the attacks while failing to take concrete actions to protect lives.

President Tinubu inherited a precarious security situation, but the trend of escalating insecurity has continued under his administration, with more lives lost and people abducted than under his predecessors.

Former President Goodluck Jonathan's inability to tackle insecurity ultimately cost him his re-election in 2015, as General Muhammadu Buhari and his party, APC, capitalized on the situation to portray Jonathan as weak on security.

General Buhari, touting his experience as a retired General, promised to defeat terrorism in Nigeria, but his efforts ultimately failed, with the country ranking as the world's fifth most dangerous nation, according to the Legatum Prosperity Index for Safety and Security, by the time he left office in 2023.

Under Buhari, more Nigerians died from terrorism, insurgency, and banditry than under President Jonathan, setting a dire precedent for President Tinubu, who has overseen an even more rapid deterioration of security in less than three years in office.

According to Amnesty International, at least 10,217 people were killed in the first two years of President Tinubu's administration, with the figure reaching around 18,000, as estimated by a security analyst, and Nigeria ranking fourth in the 2026 global terrorism index, with a 46% increase in deaths from terrorism in 2025.

Like his predecessor, President Tinubu has taken performative actions, such as sacking service chiefs and replacing them with acclaimed officers, but these moves have yielded little tangible progress in addressing insecurity.

The appointments of National Security Adviser Nuru Ribadu and Minister of Defence General Christoper Musa have also failed to produce meaningful results, with their selections seemingly driven by political considerations rather than expectations of tangible outcomes.

In November last year, President Tinubu declared a nationwide security emergency, ordering the recruitment of more personnel and calling for expedited action on state police, but these measures have been met with skepticism, given the potential risks of arming state police officers who may be no match for well-armed terrorists and bandits.

President Tinubu's decision to purchase 5,000 surveillance cameras in Plateau State after the Jos massacre has raised questions about why such measures were not taken earlier, nearly three years into his administration.

The dire security situation in Nigeria is a fundamental failure of governance, as it is universally recognized that the primary duty of any government is to protect the lives and property of its citizens, a concept enshrined in the social contract theory established by philosophers like Thomas Hobbes and John Locke.

A report by the UK House of Lords emphasized that protecting citizens' lives is the first responsibility of a government in a democratic society, essential to the preservation of democracy.

The failure of successive Nigerian governments to address insecurity can be attributed to two primary reasons: the country's fragility and its fractured nature, with Nigeria lacking the capacity to respond effectively to security challenges due to poor state capacity and the lack of a monopoly on organized violence within its territory.

According to Professors Paul Collier and Tim Besley's report, "Escaping the fragility trap," security threats from organized non-state violence are a major symptom of state fragility, and Nigeria's inability to guarantee its citizens' safety is a direct result of its weak state capacity.

Nigeria's deeply fractured society, characterized by high levels of religious and ethnic polarization, abuse of power, and lack of accountable leadership, has also contributed to its acute security challenges, with organized non-state violence often driven by long-standing grievances between groups and fueled by selfish politicians.

A former senator, Naj'atu Muhammed, once stated that terrorism has become a multi-billion-dollar industry in Nigeria, implying that some individuals are funding and profiting from it, while Dr. Obadiah Mailafia claimed that some Northern governors were sponsors of Boko Haram, highlighting the presence of powerful political sponsors of terrorism, insurgency, and banditry in Nigeria.

The truth is that Nigeria is a weak and abusive state, utterly divided, and until it addresses its state capacity, achieves true nationhood, and holds its leaders accountable for their actions, it will never be a safe, secure, and stable country, regardless of the government's performative efforts.